Projections

I've played in a fantasy baseball league the last couple of years so I can't help but come up with my own projections for the Sox players next year. Because we're not playing fantasy this year, I'll let you in on my thoughts before the season starts. It might be interesting to see how the numbers work out at the end of the year.

My projection system consists of looking at the last three full years and guessing that next year will be somewhat similar. I assume every player will play a full season because a season ending injury seems purely random. I apologize in advance if the tables don't come out well on your screen. Blogger doesn't have a table tool for some inane reason.

So without further ado, in order of my projected lineup, the hitters:

Pos Player R HR RBI SB BA

CF Ellsbury 96 8 63 51 0.284

2B Pedroia 110 16 84 17 0.315

LF Crawford 91 15 93 52 0.295

1B Gonzalez 89 38 108 0 0.282

3B Youkilis 91 25 102 3 0.301

DH Ortiz 78 29 100 0 0.268

RF Drew 71 21 70 2 0.270

C Salty 53 14 68 0 0.259

SS Scutaro 85 10 63 5 0.272

Gonzalez and Crawford are hard to project as they've changed teams, although Gonzalez is an order of magnitude more difficult with the league change too. Saltalamacchia is difficult too as he hasn't had much big league experience to project off of. Ellsbury, Pedroia, Scutaro, and Youkilis are all coming off of injury shortened seasons so it'll be interesting to see how they bounce back. Ortiz and Drew are going to have pretty quite years but as long as the Sox are winning, I don't think people will mind.

Now the pitching, in the order Francona already announced (starters only; who projects relievers anyway?!?):

SP W K ERA WHIP

Lester 17 215 3.34 1.24

Lackey 13 145 4.01 1.33

Buchholz 15 132 3.51 1.28

Beckett 16 185 3.95 1.22

Matsuzaka 11 154 4.48 1.35

I'm surprised at the Lackey-love from Francona; I didn't see much to like from him last year and he's really only ever had one year where he was close to dominant (2007, with the Angels). Lester will be just as good this year as last; Buchholz won't be as lucky as he was last year but will still be good. It's an odd numbered year so expect a big season from Beckett (more like 2009 than 2007). Matsuzaka has had 4 years to find his feet in America; it doesn't look like he's going to be anything more than what we've seen already.

So there you have it. Now let me have it in the comments.

Sox are 12-14 in Grapefruit League action so far. I don't mind losing any of those games while they're still in Florida. Save the wins for when they count. 11 more days till Opening Day!